Population ageing and the ending of growth - what will the ebbing of the human tide mean for the people?
Once a population has more elderly than children it is a short step to the onset of natural decline, where deaths exceed births. Despite national growth rates that are still typically above the global average, the ageing-driven ending of growth is quietly unfolding at subnational level in both Australia and New Zealand--as it is globally. Simultaneously, numbers at older ages are burgeoning and will continue to grow. The present focus on population ageing as a challenge for the welfare state fails to take this broader context and its subnational implications into account. This presentation will illustrate the trends for both countries, and pose the question: after decades of wringing our hands about global population growth, are we ready for the ebbing of the human tide?
- A brief background session on why we need to do age-weighted projections, what projections are/are not, and the basics of the art of population projection.
- How to undertake and understand a population projection
- How a project demand and supply on the back of population projections
Workshop Title: Future-telling: The art of population projection
This 2 hour workshop will run in three parts.
Workshop notes and data for hands on experience will be provided.